TI Stock Jumps 11% After Hours as Q1 Blows Past Estimates
Texas Instruments posted a first-quarter earnings report on April 30 that sent its shares up 11% in after-hours trading—the stock’s sharpest single-session gain since 2022. Revenue cleared consensus by roughly 4%, gross margin expanded close to three points sequentially, and free cash flow conversion ran at the top of management’s prior guidance band.
Auto and Industrial Lead the Recovery
The segment numbers drove the tape. Industrial revenue climbed low double digits sequentially. Automotive revenue rose high single digits. Both lines printed above their prior peaks, resolving a months-long dispute about whether TI’s end markets had genuinely stabilized or were still burning through bloated distributor inventory.
They had stabilized. Inventory days at TI’s distribution partners cleared back into the long-run band, giving the company a clean demand signal heading into the second quarter. The result settled the debate that had dragged the stock sideways since late 2025, when three analog competitors described automotive and industrial as still mired in destocking while TI was calling for a floor.
The Capex Guide Held Flat
Management kept its full-year capital expenditure guide at the level set three months earlier—a signal of discipline that the buy side typically rewards in a recovery. TI has been running an aggressive domestic fab-expansion program since 2022, and holding capex steady while revenue re-accelerates implies improving return on invested capital through the back half.
The full-year revenue range TI provided implies high single-digit growth in the second half of 2026. If the company delivers, run-rate earnings power exits the year above $9 per share. Trailing twelve-month EPS currently sits in the mid-$6 range. That gap is the entire bull thesis, and the after-hours print opened it wide.
Valuation Still Below Historical Averages
At the after-hours price, implied 2027 earnings trade at roughly 18 times forward estimates. TI’s 10-year average multiple is higher, and the stock has historically commanded a premium at every prior cyclical inflection point. The current price is below that average, which explains the buy-side enthusiasm: the market is pricing the recovery but not yet pricing a full cyclical re-rating.
The read-across matters for the broader analog space. STMicro and ON Semiconductor both report next week. Both stocks sold off through March on inventory fears. TI’s print resets the prior assumption, and the bar the pair faces is now lower than sell-side models assumed two weeks ago. That asymmetry is exactly the kind of setup that attracts institutional positioning ahead of earnings.
Memory semiconductors present a contrasting picture. SK Hynix shares rose in Tokyo on its own print, then faded 2% as guidance disappointed. Memory is in the later stages of an up-cycle, facing price and mix headwinds. Analog is at the early stages, with end markets still rebuilding inventory. TI’s April 30 report makes the dividing line explicit.
Source: Texas Instruments Surges 11% After Hours on Strong Q1, Bullish Guide